Tuesday, June 5, 2012

2009 Station Fire

In 2009, California was ravaged by more than 63 wildfires. Of these, the largest and by far most damaging was the Station Fire, which began August 26, 2009 and burned huge tracts of the Angeles National forest in Los Angeles County. While the fire was mostly contained by September 19th, it burned on for nearly another month. With the help of some rain, the fire ultimately was contained October 16th, 2009 and the Station Fire officially ended (“Station Fire”). Total damages were relatively low, 209 buildings were destroyed, another 57 were damaged and 22 injuries were reported (“Station Fire Update Sept. 27, 2009”).
The suspected cause of the fire was arson and in the end its containment cost $93 million and took two firefighter’s lives (“Station Fire Update Sept. 15, 2009” and “Firefighters Honor 2 Comrades Killed in ‘Station Fire’”). The largest fire in modern Los Angeles history, and one of the largest ever in California, the 2009 Station Fire had a huge impact on the region (“Station Fire is the Largest in L.A. County’s Modern History”). I personally visited the burned area to participate in tree planting and restoration and it was clear that the damaged areas have a long road to recovery. In order to better understand this devastating fire, I used geospatial analysis to examine the fire.
Using data provided by Mark Greninger in Station Fire Perimeters, I was able to construct a reference map for the fire. To aid in the visualization, I also used National Elevation Dataset data from the USGS as well as U.S. Highways, U.S. Major Parks, and the California State (Generalized) .shp files from ESRI and the UCLA GIS Map Share. The reference map I created shows the spread of the fire over several days, from August 29 to September 2, 2009. The fire was large on the 29th, but it is notable for the dramatic expansion the 30th. The Station Fire continued to grow, albeit at a diminishing rate, through the 2nd, when the dataset ends. The fire spread throughout the Angeles National Forest, initially to the Northwest and Southeast. On August 30th, however, the fire rapidly shifted to the North, expanding greatly, and in the days following the expansion pushed outward in both East and West.
One of the features of this reference map that initially caught my attention was the direction of the spread of the fire. It seemed to be bound by the highways, spreading into the Angeles National. That made me wonder, did the fire ever impact populated areas, the nearby towns and cities? To investigate further, I decided to construct a thematic map overlaying the spread of the Station Fire onto a choropleth map of the population density of Los Angeles County by census block. My hypothesis was that the fire spread to the least populated regions, leaving the more densely populated areas unharmed.
When I completed the thematic map, it confirmed my hypothesis. The majority of the fire took in regions belong to the lowest class of population density. If the fire had spread South or Southwest, where the population was more concentrated, the damage and cost of containment, as well as the number of injuries, would likely have been much higher. Within the scope of this spatial analysis it is impossible to say what caused this fire spread pattern. One possibility is that firefighters intentionally prevented the fires from reaching populated areas, allowing it to spread into the forest. It would be interesting in the future if information about firefighting strategies and planning were made available, in order to provide more explanation as to why this pattern of spreading occurred. Whatever the cause, the key face that was revealed by the thematic map was that the fire burned only in sparsely populated areas and did not spread to the densely populated communities near by.
This lab was very interesting for me. I assembled these maps mostly by myself: while I gathered all the data online I was ultimately responsible for organizing, analyzing, visualizing and presenting the data. It was a relatively long process, as I made many mistakes along the way, but I now feel I have a clear understanding of how to perform simple spatial analysis using GIS. Spatial analysis is a powerful tool: maps and geospatial visualizations can unlock insights from seemingly inscrutable data. With this lab I had a chance to put everything I learned this quarter into use and hopefully provide some new and insightful analysis about the to the 2009 Station Fire.
Bibliography
Bloomekatz, Ari B. "Station Fire Is Largest in L.A. County's Modern History." L.A. Now. Los Angeles Times, 2 Sept. 2009. Web. 05 June 2012.
ESRI. California State (Generalized). UCLA GIS Map Share, 06 June 2010. SHP.
ESRI. U.S. Census Block Groups. UCLA GIS Map Share, 06 June 2010. SHP.
ESRI. US Highways. UCLA GIS Map Share, 30 June 2010. SHP.
ESRI. US Major Parks. UCLA GIS Map Share, 6 June 2010. SHP.
"Firefighters Honor 2 Comrades Killed in 'Station Fire'" www.ktla.com. KTLA, 4 Sept. 2009. Web. 05 June 2012.
Greninger, Mark. Station Fire Perimeters. Los Angeles County Enterprise GIS, 2 Sept. 2009. SHP.
"Station Fire." InciWeb. United States Forest Service, 11 Nov. 2009. Web. 05 June 2012.
"Station Fire Update Sept. 15, 2009." InciWeb. United States Forest Service, 15 Sept. 2009. Web. 05 June 2012.
"Station Fire Update Sept. 27, 2009." InciWeb. United States Forest Service, 27 Sept. 2009. Web. 05 June 2012.
USGS. National Elevation Dataset. USGS Seamless Data Warehouse, 28 Dec. 2010. ARCGRID.

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